Contrarian 101

I tend to swim upstream. Always have. Just ask my family. It's not that I do it to be disagreeable - I just take positions based upon my research and beliefs. I am not overly concerned if others don't really see it my way. As long as I'm comfortable that I did my homework and am not missing something, I'm cool going against the grain.

The recent positions I've taken on some of the big security M&A deals (EMC/RSA here, here and here, and Secure Computing/CipherTrust here and here) over the past month or so made me revisit this endearing personality quirk of mine. Now some folks just hate contrarians, and I get that. But hopefully I can explain the value that nay-sayers bring to the discussion. I don't expect to change your opinion, but maybe you'll be a bit more open to listening to their point of view the next time.

So in my experience there are a few different types of contrarians - all types have pros and cons. Let me dig into these a bit and you'll see what I mean.

1. Grumpy old F*** - The "Grumpy" flavor of contrarian is the hardest to deal with. Basically they are old and experienced and believe they have seen it all. And since some are as old as Methuselah - they may be right. I like to use my grumpy old friends to make sure I haven't missed anything. Since they have seen it all, if I'm missing something then they'll call me an idiot - which is exactly the feedback I'm looking for. If you've got a groundbreaking, innovative idea - DO NOT talk to Grumpy about it. Since it hasn't worked in the past, it can't possibly work in the future. As an aside, these folks are pretty entertaining to be around when they are not pointing their ire at you.
   
   
2. The Fighter - This contrarian just likes a fight. They'll take on anyone at anytime on pretty much any topic. They are wonderful at parties because you put two of these folks in a room with different ideological stances and the fireworks really fly. Fighters are useful when you need to make sure your logic holds up. They will come at you and come at you and then come at you some more. If you can successfully beat them back over an extended period of time, you know you're ready for public scrutiny. Just don't talk to these folks if you are in a rush, it's hard to get them to stop until either they've won or been knocked unconscious.
   
   
3. The Zealot - The zealot is perhaps the most dangerous of the contrarians. Basically you are not going to change their mind. No way, no how. No amount of logic will appeal to them, even if they are dead wrong. With these folks, keep a copy of the World Book Encyclopedia around because you'll need it. The only way to sway them is with irrefutable fact, and that's only successful maybe 35% of the time. I tend not to waste my time with these folks. I'd rather get into a 15 round rumble with 3 fighters than try to convince a zealot they missed something. Though if the zealot agrees with you it's nice to have them in the Foxhole because nothing anyone says can sway them. Most technology company founders are zealots, by the way.
   
   
4. The Analyst - Actually most analysts are a combination of the above flavors. They relish discord and intellectual sparring. They know that the only way you get to a good solid position is to have people poke holes at it. They've seen a lot over the years and are very good at recognizing the patterns as history repeats itself. They defend their positions (once developed) rigorously and are always up for a fight. Some can be zealots about certain things and that is dangerous. Because the best analysts are always factoring in new data to ensure their positions are still valid and relevant.

So there you have it - all you ever wanted to know about contrarians. OK, a lot more than you ever wanted to know, but at least the next time a guy like me lights you up, you'll know where it comes from.